Economics as a Science: Generalisations & Predictions

By Bryson Jumbe

Illustration of rising cost of living

Economics is partly a science. Conclusions can be deduced from 'observed facts' on certain economic phenomena such as inflation.

Such 'observed facts' can be the basis for generalising current state of economy and predicting future economic trends.

Some of the 'observed facts' in 2017 for Malawi's economy include the 7.7 percent inflation and 16 percent Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) base or policy rate [at which commercial banks borrow from the central bank].

These are facts or data we cannot dispute.

Based on such health economic indicators, generalisations have been made on Malawi's state of economy, which is said to be on a rebound - stabilising and growing.

Likewise, predictions have been given on the expected rate of economic growth.

This is that part of generalisation and prediction. Generalisations can be wrong, and predictions are not realities.

Often, one's economic perspective on these is biased towards political allegiance: the ruling, opposition, and the 'centrists.'

We have heard politicians' views and expert opinions.

Generalisations and predictions can be disputed, but not the reality on the ground of the standard of living of people.

One of Government's principal aims, through its economic policies, is to improve the standard of living of the people.

In fact, this (standard of living) is the only economic language that most people understand when applied in a less technical way.

So, from the facts observed, what is the bearing on the standard of living of the people?

Zambia's president Edgar Lungu deploys army to help combat cholera outbreak that has claimed 41 lives

Zambia's president Edgar Lungu has deployed the army to help combat a cholera outbreak that has claimed 41 lives in the capital Lusaka and affected 1 550 more since September.
 

The initial outbreak began on September 28 according to the World Health Organisation and Zambia's health ministry subsequently launched efforts to limit the spread of the disease.

Cholera is a water-borne disease which goes hand in hand with poverty and while readily treatable can be lethal if unaddressed.

Lusaka has been recording an average of 60 new cases every day.

Lungu added that there would be a crackdown on street food stalls, bars and restaurants that do not meet minimum food hygiene standards.

Blantyre DHO embarks on extensive cholera prevention campaign

Communities in Mbayani line up to receive chlorine ( pic by Solister Mogha)

Blantyre District Health Office (DHO) has embarked on a week-long mass cholera prevention campaign targeting cholera hotspot areas of the district, authorities have confirmed. 

Blantyre District Health Promotion Officer, Chrissie Banda said the campaign, which started Friday, December 29, 2017, was intended to raise awareness, remind residents on the dangers of the disease and its preventive measures.

Banda who doubles as the district hospital’s public relations officer added that although Blantyre did not register any cholera case, chances were high for an outbreak owing to the fact that it was the country’s commercial hub.

“The possibility of being affected by the disease is very likely because Blantyre is a commercial city with people getting into the district from all corners of the country, including Karonga where the disease has been confirmed,” she said.

“Having this in mind, we thought of organizing this campaign so that we remind residents about the disease and the minimum standard hygiene practices to be followed to avoid suffering from this waterborne disease,” Banda emphasised.

Banda pointed out that apart from cautioning against the outbreak in Karonga, the rainy season was also always associated with cholera, hence the need for people to be careful and avoid anything that could predispose them to the disease. 

“Some of the messages we are sharing with communities border on the need to have toilets and pit latrines in their homes, eat clean food in the case of fruits and vegetables, wash their hands before eating any food and use clean and safe water,” Banda said.

During the campaign, the health office is also distributing chlorine to communities for water purification before use in households as a basic preventive measure. 

Meanwhile, Banda has appealed to the private sector and non-governmental organisations to support the initiative by among other things, supplying the DHO with more chlorine whose stock, she said, was running out.

Mbayani, Zingwangwa, Chirimba, Ndirande and Bangwe are some of the areas that have been earmarked for the massive campaign. (MANA)

Social media abuse

By Bryson Jumbe

Social media platforms

Social media is considered an important aspect of sharing information in today's world of technological advancement.

The platform has over the years been embraced as a core online tool for marketing and media communication.

It is credited with building social and professional relationships, facilitating business transactions, development and promoting democracy.

Despite having these and many other enormous advantages, social media is often abused by users.

There have been cases of posting defamatory, private conversations, racist and sexist remarks, and obscene content such as nude photos and videos on social media sites.

Some of these have been circulated with the aim of character assassination or imposing personal views on others.

October this year, there were at least two separate cases in Lilongwe where video clips of two women being assaulted and molested by their fellow women were circulated on Facebook and WhatsApp.

As a control measure on the use of social media, Medical Council of Malawi issued a warning to its practitioners of their professional duty.

The Council reminded medical practitioners that they are barred from among other things sharing pictures of patients on social media.

As a result of such challenges, there have been calls for authorities to regulate the platform.

But such a measure would degrade the importance of social networks to users' freedom of expression and speech.

On the other hand, abuse of the social media might reach unwanted heights if proper regulation is not imposed.

Recently, former US President Barack Obama called for responsible use of the platform.

Parliamentary 'expected' roles: case of 50+1 electoral system

By Bryson Jumbe

There has been a furore over the voting of the electoral reforms bill. The 50+1electoral system to be precise.

MPs, especially those who either voted 'No' or abstained the voting for various reasons, continue to face criticism.

A certain paper even suggested that the MPs 'sold out' to Government.

The MPs are being accused of satisfying their personal interests for voting against the bill without consulting their constituencies.

In defence, some say that there wasn't enough time to do so.

Now let's look at some of the 'expected' roles of both the government and the opposition in parliament.

These are based on expert opinion of former Speaker of Parliament, Dr Mpasu. He shared his view on the matter to Capital FM's Sunday Roundtable programme (17 December).

Government brings in bills to parliament.

Government side is expected to support bills it brings to parliament.

The opposition's role is to critique the bills. It is expected to be critical of whatever government brings in.

What happened with the 50+1 bill was the opposite.

Government side was critical of the bill and voted against its own bill.

The opposition assumed the 'expected role' of government by supporting the bill, and voted in favour of the bill.

The former speaker said: it was totally unheard-of for government to reject its own bills.

The 50+1 electoral system requires a presidential candidate to get more than 50 percent of the votes in order to become President.

A similar system is used in Liberia where a rerun has been held after the initial election produced no outright winner.

Malawi has potential in mining sector

By Tione Andsen

Lilongwe, December 19, Mana: Norwegian Church Aid (NCA) has said Malawi has the potential in the mining industry that could easy translate into the sustainable development of the country.

NCA country Director for Malawi, Stein Villumstad said this Monday in Lilongwe during the opening of the 2017 Malawi Alternative Mining Indaba at Crossroads hotel.

He pointed out that the sector offers a lot of potential but it has been underutilized for many years for the development of the country.  

Villumstad said the mining sector could play a crucial role as an alternative means of developing the country’s economic growth.

The country director observed that the country still uses outdated laws to regulate the industry, saying this is having a negative impact to the implementation of some mining projects in the country.

“The country needs to have updated laws that will take care of interested parties, government’s responsibility and regulations, interest of potential investors and the rights of local communities,” he explained.

Villumstad said government needs to have firm regulations to safeguard the industry from being exploited by other stakeholders within the mining sector. 

The country director pointed out that the indaba would engage all stakeholders interested in mining business, including government as key player, investors and local communities in advancing its growth.

He viewed that various stakeholders would offer different experiences around the region in terms mining potential, benefits and challenges being encountered in the process.

Country Director of Oxfam, John Makina spelt the need for the government to look at the recommendations that would be raised during the indaba.

He added that the mining industry is facing so many challenges in terms of regulation and the use of the available laws which need to be reviewed to be in conformity with current situations.

“We need to move forward in addressing the challenge the industry is facing and provide tangible solutions for the betterment of the country in general,” Makina highlighted. 

He said it was pleasing to note that Malawi submitted its first ever Extractives Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) report as one way of promoting transparency and accountability in the sector.

Chairperson for Natural Resources Justice Network (NRJN), Kossam Munthali bemoaned the absence of officials from the Ministry of Mines and Natural Resources to the indaba.

He said this was the third indaba that has been organised but Ministry officials, did not commit themselves to attend such gatherings where they could have opportunities to explain some of the burning issues affecting the sector. 

The two day Mining Indaba has the theme-Transforming Malawi’s Natural Resources Sustainable Development and has drawn participants throughout the country ranging from Parliamentarians, Traditional leaders, local community members, investors, Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) and the media.

AFRICA: A CONTINENT SYNONYMOUS WITH POWER HUNGRY LEADERS

By Bryson Jumbe

At 73, and after standing for five (5) terms, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda seems to be gearing up for a sixth term in office.

The only hurdle to his ambition is the constitution, which limits presidential candidates to the age cap of 75 years.

But even the constitution is under threat as all is being done to pave way for Mr Museveni to stand in 2021.

This is one of the many examples in Africa, whereby leaders attempt to usurp power even after completing their mandated tenures.

For example, Joseph Kabila of DRC finished his second and last term of office in December 2016, but he is President to date.

Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia had to be forced out of power into exile. After 22 years in power, he accepted election defeat before changing his mind.

Elsewhere, things are different of course with some problems here and there.

At 56, former US president Barack Obama is currently enjoying his retirement package.

Some even stand down once there is a major policy change different from their political ideology. A great example is that of former UK's PM David Cameron, who resigned once the 'Yes' won the Brexit referendum.

It could be argued that our friends have mature democracies and institutions, but it is more than that. Our friends care more about preserving their integrity. They have a good sense of public service and duty, putting the interest of the public above self-interests.

Considering the many cases that we have had of leaders hanging on to power unnecessarily, Africa is becoming more synonymous with power hungry.

Let's hope that Mr Museveni will surprise us and peacefully step aside upon expiration of his term.